And the winner for the Academy Award is… !! Yes, we know the Academy Awards 2022 are more than 3 weeks away. And no, we don’t know who’s winning at the ceremony that is to take place at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on March 27, 2022. But are there any early indicators telling us who is likely to win?
History shows us that winners at award shows that precede the Academy Awards such Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards and British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Awards are a good lead indicator of who ends up eventually winning the Oscar. The BAFTA Awards will be held on March 13, 2022. But the Golden Globes and SAG Awards for 2022 have been handed out. So, based on this, who is expected to win the Oscars in 2022 if the past trend continues? Let’s examine the relationship between winners at the Oscars and other awards:
Actor in a Leading Role:
| Year | Golden Globes | SAG | BAFTA | Oscars |
| 2015 | Leonardo DiCaprio | Leonardo DiCaprio | Leonardo DiCaprio | Leonardo DiCaprio |
| 2016 | Casey Affleck | Denzel Washington | Casey Affleck | Casey Affleck |
| 2017 | Gary Oldman | Gary Oldman | Gary Oldman | Gary Oldman |
| 2018 | Rami Malek | Rami Malek | Rami Malek | Rami Malek |
| 2019 | Joaquin Phoenix | Joaquin Phoenix | Joaquin Phoenix | Joaquin Phoenix |
| 2020 | Chadwick Boseman | Chadwick Boseman | Anthony Hopkins | Anthony Hopkins |
| 2021 | Will Smith | Will Smith | To Be Announced | To Be Announced |
For the past 6 years, the winner at the BAFTA Award and Oscars has been common. Also, whenever an actor has won both the Golden Globes and SAG award, he has won the Oscars 4 out of 6 times. Having won at both the Golden Globes and SAG, Will Smith is the current favourite to win the Oscar this year. A win at BAFTA will surely seal it for him. However, looking at the recent past, if any one other than Will Smith were to win at the BAFTA, the race could become interesting.
Actress in a Leading Role:
| Year | Golden Globes | SAG | BAFTA | Oscars |
| 2015 | Brie Larson | Brie Larson | Brie Larson | Brie Larson |
| 2016 | Isabelle Huppert | Emma Stone | Emma Stone | Emma Stone |
| 2017 | Frances McDormand | Frances McDormand | Frances McDormand | Frances McDormand |
| 2018 | Glenn Close | Glenn Close | Olivia Coleman | Olivia Coleman |
| 2019 | Renée Zellweger | Renée Zellweger | Renée Zellweger | Renée Zellweger |
| 2020 | Andra Day | Viola Davis | Frances McDormand | Frances McDormand |
| 2021 | Nicole Kidman | Jessica Chastain | To Be Announced | To Be Announced |
Just like the Best Actor category, the winner at the BAFTA and the Oscars have been common for the past 6 years. However, with different winners already at the Golden Globes and SAG, predicting who will take the Oscar this year is going to be a difficult task. All eyes will be on who takes the prize at the BAFTA Awards.
Directing:
| Year | Golden Globes | BAFTA | Oscars |
| 2015 | Alejandro G. Iñárritu | Alejandro G. Iñárritu | Alejandro G. Iñárritu |
| 2016 | Damien Chazelle | Damien Chazelle | Damien Chazelle |
| 2017 | Guillermo del Toro | Guillermo del Toro | Guillermo del Toro |
| 2018 | Alfonso Cuaron | Alfonso Cuaron | Alfonso Cuaron |
| 2019 | Sam Mendes | Sam Mendes | Bong Joon-Ho |
| 2020 | Chloe Zhao | Chloe Zhao | Chloe Zhao |
| 2021 | Jane Campion | To Be Announced | To Be Announced |
The Directing category shows the strongest relationship. In 5 out of 6 years, the winner among all 3 awards was the same. Jane Campion’s win for The Power of the Dog has put her in pole position to win at the BAFTA as well as the Oscars.
Best Picture:
| Year | Golden Globes | SAG* | BAFTA | Oscars |
| 2015 | The Revenant | Spotlight | The Revenant | Spotlight |
| 2016 | Moonlight | Hidden Figures | La La Land | Moonlight |
| 2017 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | The Shape of Water |
| 2018 | Bohemian Rhapsody | Black Panther | Roma | Green Book |
| 2019 | 1917 | Parasite | 1917 | Parasite |
| 2020 | Nomadland | The Trial of the Chicago 7 | Nomadland | Nomadland |
| 2021 | The Power of the Dog | CODA | To Be Announced | To Be Announced |
* Outstanding performance by a cast
The Best Picture category has been the most unpredictable category. The Power of the Dog remains the favourite at this point but CODA’s surprising win for the top honour at SAG Awards makes it a dark horse. However, if 2017 and 2018 were to repeat, the Oscar would not be handed to either of these two movies.
In a nutshell, Will Smith (for Best Actor) and Jane Campion (for Directing) are frontrunners to win in their respective categories. However, the expected winner of the remaining two categories (Best Actress and Best Picture) should become more certain after next week once the BAFTA Awards are handed out.
Tune into the Academy Awards on 27th March 2022 to find out who takes home the coveted prize.