James Cameron’s massively mounted directorial venture ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ is running in theatres worldwide and the film has been received quite well both critically and commercially. ‘Avatar 2’ is already past its breakeven point and has grossed around a whopping $1.9 billion globally and $572 million domestically (US).
So, the million-dollar question is: Can the ‘Avatar’ sequel beat James Cameron’s own films ‘Titanic’ and the first ‘Avatar’ movie and ‘Avengers: Endgame’ to become the highest grossing movie of all time?
To be able to do that, ‘Avatar 2’ must first surpass the box office collections of ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ ($1.916 billion), ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ ($2.048 billion), and ‘Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens’ ($2.069 billion).
If we take the last title as the benchmark, then ‘Avatar 2’ would have to earn around $165 million more to beat all the films mentioned in the aforementioned para. Although James Cameron’s films’ box-office numbers are difficult to predict, $166 million is a figure which ‘Avatar 2’ has the potential to manage in the coming weeks.
The next big hurdle is James Cameron’s own 1997 blockbuster disaster film ‘Titanic’. If we take into account Avatar 2 and Titanic’s domestic weekend figures, ‘Titanic’ had grossed just $236 million by the fifth weekend at that time, compared to $572 million for ‘Avatar 2’. So, ‘Avatar 2’ holds a certain edge in this regard.
But to surpass Titanic’s international box-office record of $2.194 billion, ‘Avatar 2’ needs another $291 million globally. A difficult but not an impossible task, considering the film’s positive word of mouth, repeat value, and potentially long theatrical run.
And hypothetically, if ‘Avatar 2’ supposedly cruises ahead of ‘Titanic’, then would it be able to beat two highest grossing films of all time – ‘Avengers: Endgame’ ($2.797 billion) and ‘Avatar’ ($2.922 billion)?
Again, a tough-to-predict scenario. But if we consider the overall lifetime worldwide gross (not just initial theatrical release) for ‘Avatar 2’ in the next decade or so, then that will give us a different picture.
For instance, after its initial theatrical release in 2009, the first ‘Avatar’ movie was re-released in theatres four times – in 2010, 2020, 2021, and 2022. And the combined gross of Avatar’s theatrical re-releases comes out to be almost $180 million.
And in case of ‘Avatar 2’, since the number of screens will be much more with respect to its theatrical re-releases, its lifetime gross will also increase (say, around double the figure). So, potential lifetime gross (including re-releases) of ‘Avatar 2’ should probably be to the tune of $2.2 billion + $360 million = $2.56 billion!
But the above estimated lifetime gross figure of $2.56 billion is still short of Avengers: Endgame and Avatar’s overall box-office numbers.
So, as per above analysis, ‘Avatar 2’ should eventually stand at Rank 3 on the highest grossing films of all time (after its initial theatrical release). That is, behind ‘Avengers: Endgame’ and ‘Avatar’. Having said that, nothing is impossible for James Cameron’s films as they follow an unusual box-office trajectory after all. Rest, time will tell.
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