Netflix commissions and cancels plenty of shows almost on a daily basis. Many of their ongoing shows aren’t renewed with hardly any mentions. On the other hand, there have been so many instances of uproar from fans in response to Netflix cancelling or not renewing a show after one or more seasons. Topics on saving the show start trending on social media with petitions being signed asking Netflix to renew the show.
Such shows not only have vocal fans on social media but also high viewership numbers – and thus the strong support. However, over the years it has become quite evident that at Netflix viewership numbers in isolation don’t lead to a show getting renewed or not.
Recently, Rachel Shukert, creator of the Netflix show – ‘The Baby Sitter’s Club’ also opened up on how despite her show having ‘Succession-like’ (the hit HBO show) viewership numbers, Netflix decided to cancel the show.
Netflix doesn’t share detailed data that would have influenced it’s decision to cancel or renew the show. This isn’t shared even with the creators of the show. But if not viewership numbers, what other metrics determine whether a show needs to keep going or no?
One of the things that Netflix evaluates is the geographic breakdown of viewership numbers. A high viewership in markets such as the USA won’t matter much to Netflix. This is because given the huge subscription numbers of Netflix in such a market, growth prospects for the streaming service are very less. Instead, it would want a show that works in geographies where it has low penetration.
It also assigns high importance to the number of days taken for a viewer to complete the show. It is said that the more subscribers complete the show in the first 7 days, the better the chances of renewal. It may not matter if in absolute terms a higher number of viewers watch the show unless they do it quickly in a week’s time. For a show like ‘The Baby-Sitters Club’, its creator believes that given that it’s target audience is teenagers and youth, they may not have access to the television for 5-6 hours a day making it difficult for them to complete the show in a week’s time. Thus, such a metric may not be relevant for all types of shows.
Netflix also looks at what % of subscribers who start the show, complete it. There is no official confirmation but many analysts believe that any show which has a less than 50% completion rate is most likely to receive an axe.
Netflix has relied on data over the past years and this has helped them grow and be successful. However, with changing habits and preferences, such as a segment of audiences not preferring to binge, it may be time for Netflix to evolve and adapt their evaluation methodology. Yes, viewership numbers alone may not tell the whole story but it needs to be more flexible and nimble while taking decisions to renew a show in the future.
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